On 22 July 2026 the Government said the new airport ‘should represent an investment of between €7.9 billion and €8.9 billion, at 2024 prices’. Three parts of that sentence matter.
Why the two cost figures cannot be compared
May 2024
- Covers
- Two runways, in the Government’s strategic analysis
- Price base
- not stated
July 2026
- Covers
- The airport project in ANA’s technical report
- Price base
- 2024 prices
- Different scope: runways only versus an airport project.
- Different price base: not stated versus 2024 prices.
- Different stage: strategic analysis versus preliminary design.
What the €7.9–8.9 billion estimate covers — as far as we know
Stated
- 7,900–8,900 € million — the airport project in ANA’s technical report, at 2024 prices
Not stated whether included
- Land and expropriations
- Relocating the military firing range
- The airport rail link
- The Third Tagus Crossing
- Regional road schemes
- Financing costs and interest
- Inflation after 2024
- Contingency
Separate figures on record
- up to 4.5 € million — demilitarisation works authorised, plus VAT
- about 7,000 € million — debt ANA plans to raise (financing, not an extra cost)
‘Should represent’
It is an estimate from ANA’s technical report, not a fixed-price contract and not a budget approved by anyone. The financial report — the document that will explain how the money is raised — is due on 16 January 2027.
Estimate and planned debt
- Debt is one way of paying for the project, not an extra cost.
- How the rest would be funded (equity, airport charges, concession terms) is not set out in the public documents.
- The debt figure has no stated price base, so the two bars are a rough guide to scale only.
‘Between 7.9 and 8.9’
A range of €1 billion signals the uncertainty of a preliminary design. The design itself is still under review: the Government has asked for changes that could affect the cost, including a strategy for future terminal expansion.
The 2024 two-runway figure, split by runway
- First runway3,231 € million
- Second runway2,874 € million
Total for two runways: 6,105 € million Status: Historical / superseded
‘At 2024 prices’
The figure is expressed in 2024 money. Spending in 2029–2033 will be in the euros of those years, which include inflation. Any later budget in nominal euros must be converted before it is compared with this estimate.
What is in it?
The sources we reviewed do not say whether the range includes land, the relocation of the military range, the rail link, the Third Tagus Crossing, regional roads, financing costs, inflation or contingency. Until a document says so, we treat those as unknown — and we do not add them up ourselves.
Is it more than 2024?
In May 2024 the Government gave €6,105 million for two runways (€3,231 million for the first and €2,874 million for the second). That figure had no stated price base and a different scope. Subtracting it from the 2026 range would produce a number that means nothing. Our cost explorer refuses to draw them on the same scale, and explains why.
Who pays?
ANA plans to raise about €7 billion through debt and proposes progressive increases in airport charges at Humberto Delgado between 2026 and 2030. Whether any public money is involved is not established.