How the opening date moved
- May 2024 plan — first runway: 2030
- May 2024 plan — second runway: 2031
- July 2026 schedule — construction: 2029–2033
- July 2026 schedule — rail link: 2034
- July 2026 schedule — opening: from 2035
- Reported, unverified — opening: 2037
A changed target is recorded as a change. It is not, by itself, evidence of misconduct or failure: projects are redesigned, scopes change and estimates are recalculated. We show the original statement, the date, the revision and the source, and leave it to readers to judge.
Opening and completion targets
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 plan: first runway built | 2030 | — | Year by which the first runway should be built, per May 2024. | Status: Historical / superseded | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| 2024 plan: second runway built | 2031 | — | Year by which the second runway should be built, per May 2024. | Status: Historical / superseded | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| July 2026: opening from 2035 | from 2035 | — | Opening 'from 2035', after tests and certification. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) | |
| July 2026: rail line opens | 2034 | — | Opening year announced for the Lisbon–Airport rail line. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) | |
| July 2026: construction 2029–2033 | 2029–2033 | — | Start and completion years of construction in the July 2026 schedule. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) | |
| Reported: 2037 (unverified) | 2037 | — | Opening year reported as the concessionaire's longer schedule; no primary document identified. | Status: Unverified | Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing |
Each row starts with the original dated statement and follows every later revision. Earlier versions stay visible. A revised target is recorded as a change, not as proof of failure or bad faith.
2024 analysis: €6,105 million for two runways
Current status: Status: Historical / superseded
· Portuguese Government
The Government's 2024 announcement gave the total cost of two runways as €6,105 million: €3,231 million for the first and €2,874 million for the second.
Status: Historical / superseded
Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: 2024 analysis: €6,105 million for two runways
2024 target: first runway by 2030, second by 2031
Current status: Status: Target / forecast
· Portuguese Government · later revised
In May 2024 the Government said the first runway should be built in 2030 and the second in 2031.
Target: 2030 / 2031 Non-binding Status: Historical / superseded
Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: 2024 target: first runway by 2030, second by 2031
· Portuguese Government (summarising ANA's technical report)
According to the schedule presented in July 2026, construction should start in 2029 and finish by 2033, and the new airport is expected to open from 2035, after tests and certification.
Target: from 2035 Conditional on other decisions Status: Target / forecast
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: Opening planned from 2035
Observatory commentary
'From 2035' is a target, not a guaranteed date. In September 2026 the Government said it wanted to work with ANA to bring forward the concessionaire's proposed calendar, which implies that the concessionaire's own programme runs later.
Humberto Delgado to reach 45 movements an hour
Current status: Status: Target / forecast
· Portuguese Government
The 2024 decision included increasing Humberto Delgado's capacity to 45 movements an hour, with investment in terminals and access, under ANA's concession contract.
Target: No date stated Status: Target / forecast
Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: Humberto Delgado to reach 45 movements an hour
Firing-range land to be released in phases by 2029
Current status: Status: Target / forecast
· ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (describing Government actions)
The phased demilitarisation schedule provides for releasing the area needed for the airport by 2029.
Target: by 2029 Status: Target / forecast
Source: ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) Record and audit history: Firing-range land to be released in phases by 2029
A longer programme with opening in 2037 has been reported
Current status: Status: Unverified
· Media reports (unattributed in the baseline)
Contemporary reporting cited in the observatory's research baseline described 2037 as the concessionaire's longer schedule for opening. The observatory has not yet identified a primary document stating 2037.
Target: 2037 Status: Unverified
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Record and audit history: A longer programme with opening in 2037 has been reported
Observatory commentary
Kept as unverified until a primary source is found. The Government's September 2026 wish to shorten 'the calendar currently proposed by the concessionaire' is consistent with, but does not confirm, a later date.
About €7 billion to be raised through debt
Current status: Status: Officially proposed
· Portuguese Government (describing ANA's plan)
ANA plans to finance about €7 billion of the project by issuing debt.
Non-binding Status: Officially proposed
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: About €7 billion to be raised through debt
Observatory commentary
Financing was not settled at the baseline date; the financial report is due on 16 January 2027. The mix of equity, debt, user charges and any public money is an open question.
About 20 minutes by train to central Lisbon
Current status: Status: Officially proposed
· Portuguese Government
The airport is to be 20 minutes from central Lisbon by train, through a dedicated link via the Third Tagus Crossing, a new road-rail bridge between Chelas and Lavradio.
Status: Officially proposed
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Source: ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) Record and audit history: About 20 minutes by train to central Lisbon
Observatory commentary
An advertised journey time for a line that is not yet built or approved; the city-centre terminus was not specified in the sources reviewed.
Airport rail line to open in 2034
Current status: Status: Target / forecast
· Portuguese Government
The new Lisbon–Airport rail line is to open in 2034, with a new station served by four tracks and three platforms and direct connections to long-distance trains.
Target: 2034 Non-binding Status: Target / forecast
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: Airport rail line to open in 2034
Observatory commentary
The rail target (2034) is a year earlier than the airport's 'from 2035'. The two schedules are separate and depend on different decisions.
Capacity of 56 million passengers a year at opening
Current status: Status: Officially proposed
· ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal; Portuguese Government
The airport is designed for a capacity of 56 million passengers a year when it opens.
Status: Officially proposed
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Source: ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) Source: Jornal de Negócios Record and audit history: Capacity of 56 million passengers a year at opening
Observatory commentary
In September 2026 the Government asked for different demand scenarios to test whether this sizing is robust.
Construction planned from 2029 to 2033
Current status: Status: Target / forecast
· Portuguese Government (summarising ANA's technical report)
Construction should start in 2029 and be completed by 2033, according to the schedule presented in July 2026.
Target: 2029–2033 Conditional on other decisions Status: Target / forecast
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: Construction planned from 2029 to 2033
Investment estimate: €7.9–8.9 billion at 2024 prices
Current status: Status: Officially proposed
· Portuguese Government (summarising ANA's technical report)
The technical report estimates the investment in the new airport at between €7.9 billion and €8.9 billion, at 2024 prices.
Non-binding Status: Officially proposed
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Source: Jornal de Negócios Record and audit history: Investment estimate: €7.9–8.9 billion at 2024 prices
Observatory commentary
A range estimate from the concessionaire's report, not a fixed-price contract and not the total public cost of everything linked to the airport. Later nominal-euro figures will need recalculation before comparison.
Complete application due by 16 January 2028
Current status: Status: Target / forecast
· Ministries of Finance and of Infrastructure and Housing
The complete application, containing the final version of all reports, is to be delivered by 16 January 2028 at the latest.
Target: by 16 January 2028 Binding Status: Target / forecast
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: Complete application due by 16 January 2028
Financial report due on 16 January 2027
Current status: Status: Target / forecast
· Ministries of Finance and of Infrastructure and Housing
The next step in the application is delivery of the financial report on 16 January 2027, completing the four interim reports.
Target: 16 January 2027 Binding Status: Target / forecast
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Record and audit history: Financial report due on 16 January 2027
Observatory commentary
A procedural date in the concession process. The observatory will record whether and when it is met.
Lisbon–Madrid by high-speed rail in 2034
Current status: Status: Target / forecast
· Infraestruturas de Portugal
The Government mandated IP to bring forward the studies needed to deliver the Lisbon–Madrid high-speed link in 2034, with a journey time of about three hours.
Target: 2034 Status: Target / forecast
Source: Infraestruturas de Portugal Record and audit history: Lisbon–Madrid by high-speed rail in 2034
Observatory commentary
Not comparable with the July 2026 estimate of €7.9–8.9 billion at 2024 prices: the scope and price base differ. Reading the change as a cost overrun would be wrong without that adjustment.