In March 2026 the Government found ANA’s traffic forecasts too conservative and asked for them to be revised. In September it welcomed ANA’s acknowledgement that its initial projections were inadequate, but asked for different demand scenarios to test the airport’s sizing.
The July 2026 design is sized for 56 million passengers a year at opening and up to 85 million. The 2024 strategic scenario, with up to four runways, spoke of traffic that may exceed 100 million by 2050. These are different scenarios and must not be combined.
No airline agreements were found. Airlines were consulted in 2025, and the Government has asked ANA to keep working closely with them.
Passenger capacity
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026: long-term development | up to 85 million passengers a year | — | Capacity the airport 'could grow to'. Horizon not stated in the sources re-read. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government), ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) | |
| July 2026: at opening | 56 million passengers a year | — | Design capacity in the opening year. | Status: Officially proposed | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government), ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) |
Passenger demand forecasts
Not directly comparable. These figures use different units, price bases or scopes, so they are drawn in separate panels and must not be added up or ranked against each other.
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2024: Humberto Delgado in 2030 | 39 million passengers a year | — | Projected passengers at the current airport in 2030. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) |
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2024 strategic scenario (2050) | more than 100 million passengers a year | — | Passenger traffic that 'may exceed' this level by 2050 in the 2024 recommendation for a four-runway expansion path. A different scenario from the 2026 design capacity. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) |
Lisbon airport passengers, and the capacity planned
Million passengers a year
published figure * derived from published growth rates projection or design capacity, not traffic
Passenger capacity: different scenarios, not one forecast
Current airport (2024 projection)
New airport — July 2026 design
New airport — 2024 strategic scenario (up to four runways)
Illustration — not to scale, not the airport design
Tail fins at an apron and an aircraft taking off. No airline is shown.
Illustration: Luís de Camões Airport Observatory (original work).
What the documents say
- Status: Under review Fact
In its 28 September 2026 response the Government welcomed ANA's acknowledgement that its initial traffic projections were inadequate, but asked for different demand scenarios to test the robustness of the airport's sizing over the concession period.
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Details and history: Government asks for different demand scenarios
- Status: Officially proposed Forecast
The airport is designed for a capacity of 56 million passengers a year when it opens.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Source: ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) Source: Jornal de Negócios Details and history: Capacity of 56 million passengers a year at opening
- Status: Target / forecast Forecast
The airport could grow to 85 million passengers a year over the long term, according to the July 2026 presentation.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Source: ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) Details and history: Growth to 85 million passengers a year
- Status: Officially proposed Proposal
ANA proposes a progressive increase in airport charges at Humberto Delgado between 2026 and 2030.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Details and history: Proposed progressive increase in airport charges at Humberto Delgado, 2026–2030
- Status: Officially proposed Proposal
VINCI Airports' English-language announcement adds 120 aircraft stands and 194 self-service check-in kiosks.
Source: VINCI Airports Details and history: 120 aircraft stands and 194 self-service kiosks
- Status: Completed and verified Fact
In March 2026 the Government expressed reservations about ANA's traffic projections, considering them too conservative and warning of the risk of undersizing the airport, and asked for them to be revised. It also asked for the 'Pier Swing' to be reconfigured for greater operational flexibility.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Details and history: March 2026: Government considered ANA’s traffic forecasts too conservative
- Status: Target / forecast Forecast
The 2024 decision recommended a base model of two runways handling 90–95 movements an hour, with the possibility of expanding to four runways for passenger traffic that could exceed 100 million a year by 2050.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Details and history: 2024 base model: two runways, expandable to four
- Status: Target / forecast Forecast
The Government's 2024 announcement cited projections of 39 million passengers in 2030 to justify short-term capacity increases at Humberto Delgado.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Details and history: 2024 projection: 39 million passengers at Humberto Delgado in 2030
- Status: Target / forecast Target
The 2024 decision included increasing Humberto Delgado's capacity to 45 movements an hour, with investment in terminals and access, under ANA's concession contract.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Details and history: Humberto Delgado to reach 45 movements an hour
- Status: Target / forecast Forecast
The Government said the single-airport option could accommodate TAP's expansion plans, citing preliminary projections of 190–250 aircraft in 2050.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Details and history: TAP’s preliminary projection: 190–250 aircraft by 2050
Open questions
What methodology lies behind the 56 and 85 million passenger figures?
Open
Why it matters
Demand forecasts decide the size, cost and phasing of the airport.
What is known so far
In March 2026 the Government judged ANA's forecasts too conservative; in September it asked for alternative demand scenarios. The methodology has not been published in the sources reviewed.
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government)
Questions answered
How many passengers will it handle?
56 million a year at opening, with growth to 85 million, according to the July 2026 design. A separate 2024 strategic scenario spoke of traffic that may exceed 100 million by 2050. The Government asked for alternative demand scenarios in September 2026.
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Permalink: How many passengers will it handle?
Have airlines signed up?
No airline agreements have been found in the sources reviewed. Airlines were among more than 100 bodies consulted in 2025, and the Government has asked ANA to keep working closely with them.
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Permalink: Have airlines signed up?
What happens to Humberto Delgado in the meantime?
It stays open, with capacity improvements, until the new airport is operational. The 2024 decision aimed to raise it to 45 movements an hour, and ANA is carrying out terminal works under a programme of more than €300 million.
Source: ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Permalink: What happens to Humberto Delgado in the meantime?
What will happen to the Humberto Delgado site?
Not established in the public record
Unknown. No approved plan for the site after closure was found. The observatory will not speculate.
Source: Diário da República Permalink: What will happen to the Humberto Delgado site?
Sources
Government responds to ANA’s technical report on the new Lisbon airport
Original: Government responds to ANA’s technical report on the new Lisbon airport Link checked
New Lisbon airport: VINCI Airports reaffirms its commitment to the development of the Portuguese economy
Original: New Lisbon airport: VINCI Airports reaffirms its commitment to the development of the Portuguese economy Link checked
Location of the new airport validated at the Campo de Tiro de Alcochete
Original: Location of the new airport validated at the Campo de Tiro de Alcochete Link checked
Portugal’s airports saw 72.5 million passengers in 2025
Original: Portugal’s airports saw 72.5 million passengers in 2025 Link checked
Government responds to ANA’s consultation report and publishes it
Original: Government responds to ANA’s consultation report and publishes it Link checked
Passengers at national airports up 4% to more than 70 million in 2024 (INE)
Original: Passengers at national airports up 4% to more than 70 million in 2024 (INE) Link checked
Passengers at Portuguese airports up almost 19% in 2023 (INE)
Original: Passengers at Portuguese airports up almost 19% in 2023 (INE) Link checked
Passengers at national airports up 39.3% in 2021, but less than half of 2019 (INE)
Original: Passengers at national airports up 39.3% in 2021, but less than half of 2019 (INE) Link checked
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