The explorer below lets you compare figures, but only draws them on one scale when they share a unit, a price base and a scope. When they do not, it tells you why. We never add a 2024-price estimate to a nominal one, or a runway cost to an airport cost.
Choose two or more figures. They are drawn on one scale only if they share a unit, a price base and a scope. Otherwise the explorer explains why they cannot be compared.
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2024: first runway | 3,231 € million | not stated | Component of the €6,105 million two-runway figure. | Status: Historical / superseded | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| May 2024: second runway | 2,874 € million | not stated | Component of the €6,105 million two-runway figure. | Status: Historical / superseded | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| May 2024 strategic analysis (two runways) | 6,105 € million | not stated | Cost of two runways stated in the Government's May 2024 announcement. Scope beyond the runways and price base not stated. | Status: Historical / superseded | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| July 2026 technical report | 7,900–8,900 € million | 2024 prices | Airport project in ANA's technical report. Inclusion of land, military relocation, rail, Third Tagus Crossing, regional roads, financing costs, inflation and contingency not stated. | Status: Officially proposed | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government), Jornal de Negócios | |
| May 2024: Humberto Delgado in 2030 | 39 million passengers a year | — | Projected passengers at the current airport in 2030. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| May 2024 strategic scenario (2050) | more than 100 million passengers a year | — | Passenger traffic that 'may exceed' this level by 2050 in the 2024 recommendation for a four-runway expansion path. A different scenario from the 2026 design capacity. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| RCM 119/2026 | up to 4.5 € million | nominal, excluding VAT | Maximum expenditure authorised for demilitarisation work at the firing range, plus VAT. | Status: Legally decided | Diário da República | |
| July 2026: long-term development | up to 85 million passengers a year | — | Capacity the airport 'could grow to'. Horizon not stated in the sources re-read. | Status: Target / forecast | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government), ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) | |
| July 2026: at opening | 56 million passengers a year | — | Design capacity in the opening year. | Status: Officially proposed | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government), ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal (VINCI Airports) | |
| ANA plan, July 2026 | about 7,000 € million | not stated | Amount ANA plans to raise by issuing debt. Price base not stated; financing not settled. | Status: Officially proposed | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) |
Why the two cost figures cannot be compared
May 2024
- Covers
- Two runways, in the Government’s strategic analysis
- Price base
- not stated
July 2026
- Covers
- The airport project in ANA’s technical report
- Price base
- 2024 prices
- Different scope: runways only versus an airport project.
- Different price base: not stated versus 2024 prices.
- Different stage: strategic analysis versus preliminary design.
What the €7.9–8.9 billion estimate covers — as far as we know
Stated
- 7,900–8,900 € million — the airport project in ANA’s technical report, at 2024 prices
Not stated whether included
- Land and expropriations
- Relocating the military firing range
- The airport rail link
- The Third Tagus Crossing
- Regional road schemes
- Financing costs and interest
- Inflation after 2024
- Contingency
Separate figures on record
- up to 4.5 € million — demilitarisation works authorised, plus VAT
- about 7,000 € million — debt ANA plans to raise (financing, not an extra cost)
Estimate and planned debt
- Debt is one way of paying for the project, not an extra cost.
- How the rest would be funded (equity, airport charges, concession terms) is not set out in the public documents.
- The debt figure has no stated price base, so the two bars are a rough guide to scale only.
The 2024 two-runway figure, split by runway
- First runway3,231 € million
- Second runway2,874 € million
Total for two runways: 6,105 € million Status: Historical / superseded
All monetary figures
Investment estimate
Not directly comparable. These figures use different units, price bases or scopes, so they are drawn in separate panels and must not be added up or ranked against each other.
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2024: first runway | 3,231 € million | not stated | Component of the €6,105 million two-runway figure. | Status: Historical / superseded | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| May 2024: second runway | 2,874 € million | not stated | Component of the €6,105 million two-runway figure. | Status: Historical / superseded | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) | |
| May 2024 strategic analysis (two runways) | 6,105 € million | not stated | Cost of two runways stated in the Government's May 2024 announcement. Scope beyond the runways and price base not stated. | Status: Historical / superseded | Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) |
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 technical report | 7,900–8,900 € million | 2024 prices | Airport project in ANA's technical report. Inclusion of land, military relocation, rail, Third Tagus Crossing, regional roads, financing costs, inflation and contingency not stated. | Status: Officially proposed | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government), Jornal de Negócios |
Planned debt financing
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA plan, July 2026 | about 7,000 € million | not stated | Amount ANA plans to raise by issuing debt. Price base not stated; financing not settled. | Status: Officially proposed | Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) |
Demilitarisation works
| Figure | Value | Price base | Estimate date | Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCM 119/2026 | up to 4.5 € million | nominal, excluding VAT | Maximum expenditure authorised for demilitarisation work at the firing range, plus VAT. | Status: Legally decided | Diário da República |
What the documents say
- Status: Target / forecast Target
The next step in the application is delivery of the financial report on 16 January 2027, completing the four interim reports.
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Details and history: Financial report due on 16 January 2027
- Status: Officially proposed Proposal
ANA plans to finance about €7 billion of the project by issuing debt.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Details and history: About €7 billion to be raised through debt
- Status: Officially proposed Forecast
The technical report estimates the investment in the new airport at between €7.9 billion and €8.9 billion, at 2024 prices.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Source: Jornal de Negócios Details and history: Investment estimate: €7.9–8.9 billion at 2024 prices
- Status: Officially proposed Proposal
ANA proposes a progressive increase in airport charges at Humberto Delgado between 2026 and 2030.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Details and history: Proposed progressive increase in airport charges at Humberto Delgado, 2026–2030
- Status: Legally decided Fact
A June 2026 Council of Ministers resolution authorised spending of up to €4.5 million plus VAT on demilitarisation work at the original firing range.
Source: Diário da República Details and history: Up to €4.5 million plus VAT for demilitarisation works
- Status: Historical / superseded Forecast
The Government's 2024 announcement gave the total cost of two runways as €6,105 million: €3,231 million for the first and €2,874 million for the second.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Details and history: 2024 analysis: €6,105 million for two runways
Open questions
What exactly does the €7.9–8.9 billion estimate include?
Open
Why it matters
Without the scope, the figure cannot be compared with earlier estimates or with the total public cost.
What is known so far
The estimate is at 2024 prices. Whether it covers land, the military relocation, rail, the Third Tagus Crossing, roads, financing costs, inflation and contingency is not stated in the sources reviewed.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government)
How will the project be financed, and how will airport charges be regulated?
Open
Why it matters
Passengers and airlines may pay through charges; taxpayers may be exposed if public money is involved.
What is known so far
ANA plans about €7 billion of debt and proposes progressive charge increases at Humberto Delgado in 2026–2030. The financial report is due on 16 January 2027.
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government)
Questions answered
How much will it cost?
The technical report estimates €7.9–8.9 billion at 2024 prices. It is a range estimate, not a fixed-price contract, and it is not stated whether it includes land, the military relocation, rail, the Third Tagus Crossing, roads, financing costs, inflation or contingency.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Permalink: How much will it cost?
What does ‘at 2024 prices’ mean?
The figure is expressed in the value of money in 2024. Costs actually paid in later years will be in nominal euros, which include inflation. A 2024-price estimate cannot be compared with a later nominal budget without recalculation.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Permalink: What does ‘at 2024 prices’ mean?
Is the cost higher than the 2024 estimate?
The figures are not directly comparable. The 2024 announcement gave €6,105 million for two runways, without stating scope or price base; the 2026 estimate covers ANA’s airport project at 2024 prices. The observatory shows them side by side but does not subtract one from the other.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Source: Portuguese Government (XXIV Constitutional Government) Permalink: Is the cost higher than the 2024 estimate?
Who pays?
ANA plans to raise about €7 billion through debt and proposes progressive airport-charge increases at Humberto Delgado between 2026 and 2030. The financing was not settled at the baseline date; the financial report is due on 16 January 2027. Whether any public money is involved is not established.
Source: Portuguese Government — Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Permalink: Who pays?
Will flights from Lisbon get more expensive?
ANA proposes progressively increasing airport charges at Humberto Delgado in 2026–2030. How much of that reaches ticket prices depends on airlines and on the regulatory process for charges, which the observatory has not yet documented.
Source: Portuguese Government (XXV Constitutional Government) Permalink: Will flights from Lisbon get more expensive?
How much does moving the military cost?
A June 2026 resolution authorised up to €4.5 million plus VAT for demilitarisation work at the current range. The full cost of the replacement range in Alter do Chão has not been found in the sources reviewed.
Source: Diário da República Permalink: How much does moving the military cost?
Sources
Luís de Camões Airport should represent an investment of between 7.9 and 8.9 billion
Original: Luís de Camões Airport should represent an investment of between 7.9 and 8.9 billion Link checked
Two runways and 64 boarding gates: see what the new Luís de Camões airport will look like
Original: Two runways and 64 boarding gates: see what the new Luís de Camões airport will look like Link checked
Council of Ministers Resolution 119/2026 RCM 119/2026
Original: Council of Ministers Resolution 119/2026 Link checked
Government chooses Alcochete as the site of the new airport
Original: Government chooses Alcochete as the site of the new airport Link checked
Related explainers
Explainer
€7.9–8.9 billion: what the number does and does not tell you
The estimate is a range, at 2024 prices, from the concessionaire’s report. Here is how to read it — and why it cannot be compared with the 2024 figure.